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Weather ... Or Not
A web log by Josh Rubenstein

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    Josh regrets that he is unable to reply to every message -- but he may use or refer to your comments in future entries.
  • The Life of a KCBS/KCAL Photog (link)
    Jan 30, 2005 5:12 pm

    They are truly the men and women who make us "on-air" folks look good. Our fearless photographers.

    I am sure I am biased...but I think we have some of the best photographers in all of Los Angeles. They help us tell our stories...They capture the moments that make you laugh...cry...and think here in Southern California.

    One particular "photog"..that's what we call them...has a website to share those images.

    Bryan Frank is not only one of the nicest guys to work with...he is an excellent shooter...he has a photoblog called beFrank.

    Basically it's his image diary of day-to-day life here at channel 2 and 9. I encourage you to check it out...and see what we all go through on a daily basis.

    Here's an email from Stevie:

    "hey...
    update the blog. it's almost the dog days of summer. what are the dog days of summer?

    your friend...
    stevie"

    Well it took Stevie to set me straight. It was a long work week last week...and when I get tired and cranky...unfortunately the blog suffers. But I'm back...and might I say better than ever.

    Paul...I mean...Stevie...the origin of the phrase..."Dog Days of Summer" comes from ancient Egypt.

    It's based on the star Sirius. It is often the brightest star in the sky during summer months....Ancient Egyptians believed the star was responsible for the warm weather. Now, of course we know that is not true, that may be were the Dog Days of summer came from...that's because Sirius is also known as "The Dog Star."

    I hope the definition helps Stevie...and I hope this posting will suffice.


    Oh What a Beautiful Morning! (link)
    Jan 11, 2005 9:54 pm

    I woke up this morning and no joke?I thought I might break out in song. I guess the last winter storm was mother nature?s way of reminding us to appreciate every day?every day with sunshine...and every day safe from the elements.

    I think as a weather man I?ll be careful to get upset when our temperature is off a couple of degrees?certainly as we saw in Ventura County it could be a whole lot worse.

    I have to thank all of you that called me with rain totals?and emailed me with the conditions in your neighborhood. It definitely helped me do my job. Here are just a few:

    ?Sent by Chris (n/a) at Jan 12, 2005 12.43 am
    Dear Josh ?
    I really have found your coverage of the weather factual, informative, and appropriate to the situation. This past round of storms was a severe event and warranted the intense coverage it generated. Living on a hill and across from a steep slope myself, rain estimates are important to me (I admit, I'm a weather buff, too, having also grown up in the Midwest). By the way, we also have a rain gauge, and we in San Clemente (a few miles from the San Juan Creek mess) officially got 5.75" of rain since Thursday, the majority falling in the last 2 days of the storm.
    Again, thanks for great coverage, and keep up the good work! Glad you now have drier and sunnier weather to take your dog for a walk!?

    Chris thanks for the kind words?We have been going stir crazy keeping Wrigley inside?we let him out one day in the rain?and my yellow lab?turned into a black lab! 5.75? in San Clemente was very impressive considering Orange County really wasn?t at the heart of the system. Hope you didn?t have to deal with any leaks?

    ?Sent by A. Born at Jan 11, 2005 2.15 am
    I always have to laugh at the weather report since for my area (Menifee) it is always wrong (sorry) but this area has had a severe amount of rain and most of the country roads are either closed or muddy due to the rain and overflowing stream beds and drainage basins. It would however be interesting to see just how much rain we have had since all we have done for 5 days is try to keep the water away from the house (and that is just from a semi flooded yard) All I can say is reporting weather is about as frustrating as being a doctor..... it is a practice not a true science and ever changing good luck?

    I would say doctors have a little more at stake than we few weather people?but it certainly can be frustrating. This storm however wasn?t too frustrating because we all had a pretty good handle on it. I have to thank the National Weather Service for that?they were right on top of every single watch and warning for 5 days. The models picked up the storm well and I just used a little bit of my gut instinct. Sorry the rain reports for Menifee were slim?but there aren?t too many reporting sights in your neighborhood. The closest weather gauge is at Riverside Airport. If I am correct Menifee is in the foothills. Your totals will be greatly skewed from the flatlands because of oragraphic lifting.

    This is a phenomenon where the air flow is forced to rise because of mountain chains?that lifting process squeezes out more moisture.

    A good question from Mary:
    ?Sent by Mary Eldridge at Jan 10, 2005 8.34 pm
    Hey Josh.......is all this rain in any way related to a La Nina or El Nino pattern?
    Mary in Alta Loma ?

    There is a very mild El Nino in place?and while we can?t directly attribute this storm to the warm ocean water pattern?it certainly helped that storm track stay in place for such a long period of time. Thanks for checking in Mary.
    A lot of you also wrote in about my disgruntled viewer Chris?I?m sure we all know this was definitely a ?Storm Watch? situation.

    ?Sent by Amy (n/a) at Jan 10, 2005 7.06 pm
    Thank you Josh for keeping us update on the storm situation. You are doing a fantastic job! It is always nice to be able to be prepared for what could happen. To Chris - Wake up...Do you not see what this "over exaggerated" rain has done to our cities and our fellow Californians?? Why don't you set your ignorance aside for a few moments and think about the 2 year old little girl that washed away last night, the homeless man buried in mud, the man that went plummeting down off the 101 in Malibu and all the other victims of this "exaggerated storm"!! Thank you again Josh and staff at KCAL for your interest in keeping the public aware of was is happening.
    Be safe, Amy?

    Amy thank you so very much. It has been an exhausting few days?and our hearts all go out to the folks up at La Conchita


    Overdoing it????? (link)
    Jan 9, 2005 10:36 am

    So here we are day 5 of consistent rain...and I'm gathering the animals two by two...I'm ready to build the ark.

    One of our viewers thinks we have been over doing it...I received this email from James:

    "Sent by James Quirk at Jan 9, 2005 3.14 am

    Can you PLEASE PLEASE stop exaggerating about the weather on your
    news program!! You love to make it bigger than it is. Also, you say
    how much we need rain and then you %$#$%# about when it won't stop. What
    gives? Why do I care? Cause I LOVE the rain and when I expect a HUGE
    storm and it drizzles all day, it makes me want to $#%$#% slap your
    weather man and tell him to get it right and not exaggerate so much!"

    Clearly I think you are misguided

    James-

    First off...I did not and do not exaggerate our rain coverage. We absolutely do need rain...but we need it spaced out through the season. Not in a period of four days. No matter how much you love the rain...our city simply can't handle the tremendous amount of water. I know you may not care about others that live in the Southland...but huge amounts of rain, turn into extensive urban flooding. Hillsides collapse...and traffic comes to a stand still. That is what happens when we get the kind of rain we have been getting. It is our job to tell you about it. We recieve just over 15" a year normally. We've gotten that in just a couple of months. I know you think the world probably revolves around your community wherever that may be...but just because it is drizzling in your backyard...doesn't mean it's not pouring in someone elses. By the way...if I do say so...we have done very well with this particular system. Pegging waves of moisture is very difficult...and we have been pretty much on the money.

    By the way I grew up in the midwest and enjoy a good rainfall...but one of the things we love about Los Angeles is the sunshine and warm weather...and when it doesn't happen...most of us want our money back.

    Sorry you have been dissapointed by our coverage...I think it has been very extensive and appropriate.

    From an unhappy viewer we go over to a satisfied viewer

    This one came in from John:
    "Sent by John Josnehans at Jan 7, 2005 8.52 pm

    I can't find current storm or rainfall totals for the Riverside area. I need them to calibrate or verify my weather station readings. Do you have them or know a place that posts them for Riverside?

    Keep up the good work, I watch all the time. "

    Thanks John...could you give James a call...

    The Riverside hydrology information can be found on the San Diego Weather Services website. The Los Angeles Metro Area is covered by two weather offices...
    Oxnard handles L.A., Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties. San Diego handles Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, Orange, and Imperial Counties.

    Let me tell you something about this rain...it is tough to have a dog...we bit the bullett today...and took wrigley out into the rainy wonderland. Now the house is a muddy mess....but Wrigley's happy.


    A break in between storms (link)
    Jan 5, 2005 10:41 am

    How nice...finally the sun came out in "Sunny Southern California." I think Randy Newman is going to have to change the lyrics in "I Love L.A." to "the sun is shining most of the time."

    We are in between systems right now...so enjoy the break...actually it is beautiful outside. This city sparkles the day after a rain storm.

    I got this email yesterday:

    "Sent by Gary Anenberg at Jan 4, 2005 11.14 pm

    Based on the comment "the long winter continues" It seems like we have a slight el nino. I think that is why we are getting all the tropical moisture with our Alaska storms. I'm glad we're getting the rain. There are plenty of years where we complain that we didn't get enough. NOAA reported that it looks like more rain next week. Any guess on what we will have the rest of our season(total inches)?"

    Well Gary, you are very right...there is a slight El Nino cooking right now at the equator. However it is very difficult to correlate these storms to that phenomenon. It is possible the ocean warming has influenced our rainy season. We definately needed the rain...after three straight years with below average rainfall. In fact the Climate Prediction Center stated that we would have an average to above average rainfall season. Clearly we are above average. Nevertheless here is the latest statement from the Climate Prediction Center on El Nino's Progress

    As far as rainfall goes...we still haven't reached the list of rainiest years...although we are really close.
    The wettest year in Los Angeles was 1977 we received 33.44" of rain. The 20th wettest year was 18.17."

    Right now we stand at 15.68"...so it is quite possible we could make the list.

    Thanks for the email Gary.


    The Long Winter Continues (link)
    Jan 3, 2005 9:05 am

    Yet another storm for Southern California. So far this season...more than 14 inches of rain have fallen on downtown Los Angeles. That's about 11 inches off of the normal rainfall. We are setting up for one of the rainiest winters in recent years.

    Basically the Southwest flow has been the major player. We have been able to tap into that tropical moisture for every single storm. That flow is the key ingredient to copious amounts or rain.

    I received this email from Karen:

    "Sent by karen eakins at Dec 29, 2004 11.11 pm

    DUDE! Loved your response and explaination of the Santa Ana Winds. I live in Glen Avon @ the Pedley exit off the 60 fwy.(where the winds turn the big rigs over). We typically get the wind 24 - 36 hours after you predict them for LA. I don't know the name of the mountain pass or the range next to me but wonder if they have something to do with the delay to here?"

    Thanks for the kind words Karen...Glen Avon is nestled near the Santa Ana Mountain range...but you are still very much influenced by the San Bernardino Mountains. Both of these chains play a major part when the Santa Anas kick up. There are several minor geographical subtleties in your neck of the woods that might hinder initial wind gusts. However when a major off-shore flow event occurs...there probably is very little delay to you experiencing the winds.

    Keep in mind if it's a due east wind...you'll get it off of the Santa Ana range. If it's a North East wind you'll get it off of the San Bernardino range. You will probably experience the Santa Ana range more significantly.

    I also got this one from Susan:

    "Sent by susan rothschild at Dec 28, 2004 5.38 pm

    When there is snow in the mountains the residents are really inconvenienced by the tourists. Please remind your viewers to bring trash bags and courtesy as well as chains. Our highways are so clogged by inconsiderate snowplayers that there would be no way for an emergency vehicle to get thru if a resident were to become ill. And the trash left on the highway is really disgusting!

    Our firefighters spend Monday mornings picking up after these people. We do appreciate your early newscasts and weather reports."

    Thanks Susan...so all of you headed up for some fresh powder after this storm...please be curteous.


    Major Winter Storm on the Horizon (link)
    Dec 26, 2004 9:32 pm

    So it is now 9:32 on Sunday night. The latest information points to a very potent winter storm descending on the Southland. Here is the National Weather Service statement on the storm. This is going to be a big rain event...1.50" an hour (that's very intense). I think the heaviest rains will hit sometime Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

    While our rainfall totals have been above average, we are ending a very dry spell. So rain is welcome. Folks that live in burn areas should watch out. The rainy season right after a fire is always the most dangerous season. So the fires that hit northern L.A. county are the most vulnerable areas.

    On a side note...don't forget to turn off the sprinklers. Nothing makes me more mad than seeing those sprinklers go on in the middle of a rain storm...very wasteful!

    I'll try to keep you updated with storm tidbits as it starts getting closer.

    Stay Dry!



    The Long Winter Begins (link)
    Dec 22, 2004 8:50 am

    Winter is underway here in Southern California. The winter solstice hit yesterday afternoon...

    I received this email yesterday...
    "Sent by mickey zithrowoodich at Dec 20, 2004 11.28 pm

    when do the days start to get longer?"

    Simple question...with a simple answer. Today.

    The winter solstice is the shortest day of the year...now the daylight hours get longer all the way through the summer solstice. At that point the days get shorter.

    How about a little Christmas forecast:

    "Sent by Nikki Rhoades at Dec 20, 2004 6.09 pm

    Hi Josh,
    Great stuff you got on the site.
    I have a question that I am hoping you can help with. I am going to see
    my brother before he is shipped to Iraq and I am driving. Any way ya
    gotta get there, you know? Anyhow, we are leaving Christmas Eve to drive
    to Texas from L.A. and I was wondering if you have good news about a
    clear drive going that way? Please let me know if you have the time and
    thankyou!"

    Nikki...thanks for the kind words...
    It looks like Christmas eve and Christmas Day will be great. Plenty of Sunshine and mild temperatures. Your ride back to the Southland may be a different story. We are setting up for what appears to be a wet pattern into the New Year. This is good for us...we could use some more rainfall...but bad for your driving. Good Luck...and please send our thanks to your brother.

    And finally a letter that has angered me...but I want to bring it to your attention, because there is definately some misinformation being thrown around...

    This email comes from Rob Santana
    "Sent by Rob Santana at Dec 20, 2004 1.57 am

    Josh, I don't know where you get the idea that Santa Ana winds is remotely acceptable. As a child growing up in southern california, born and raised, generations after generations of our family members have always insisted that they are Santana winds or just more accurately Santanas. Just because we do have city named Santa Ana doesn't give ya the right to call them Santa Ana winds. Heck I've checked with friends, and family members who were all raised here, and all say the same thing: even our school teachers in grade school taught us NOT to confuse the Santana winds with the city of Santa Ana. So... Josh, if the Santana winds have anything to do with Santa Ana why oh why do the winds emanate from the high deserts of southern california and cause so much damage around Ontario .. which is umm before the winds have even made it to the Santa Ana mountain range.. that you mentioned.

    Rob."

    Let's get one thing down first...I have never said...nor do I think Santa Ana winds are a good thing. Let's begin with the term Santa Ana. There are many accepted origins of the term...one is from Spanish California...when the word Santana referred to the "devil winds" from the east. The other widely accepted definition is of course "Santa Ana." This is because those easterly winds cross the Santa Ana mountain range. The term Santa Ana has nothing to do with the city of Santa Ana. So Rob...if you are going to call me on something...please get your facts straight.

    Secondly...Rob...do a little more homework...the Santa Ana winds can originate in many different regions...the four corner states...the pacific ocean...even Baja California. They do not originate in the high desert.

    The winds become significant once they hit our mountain ranges...the winds compress below the passes and canyons and heat up as they roll into the Los Angeles Basin.

    In the weather business today we use the term Santa Ana to signify any off-shore flow event. That means winds out of the North...North-east...and East. The Easterly winds are a traditional Santa Ana because they cross the mountain chain.

    If you'd like to read more on the Santa Ana wind effect...here some evidence to support my claims...it's from the UCSD website.


    A Jamaican Christmas (link)
    Dec 8, 2004 12:05 pm

    I received this email from "Pretty Rick"

    "Sent by Pretty Rick (n/a) at Dec 7, 2004 3.36 pm

    Whatz Crackin Josh -

    My brother, son and I are headed to Jamaica for the holidays. My son wants to know how the weather is going to be from YOUR point of view. He also wants to know what does Santa wear in the islands.

    My son has a very brilliant mind for his age. He is only six.

    Pretty Rick "

    To answer your first question Rick...the weather in Jamaica for the month of December is usually nice...you can expect some passing showers during the day.
    Daytime highs usually range in the mid to upper 80's....overnight lows hover in the low 70's...it is an island so there is not a huge temperature range.

    For the second question...Santa's fashion...it really depends if Mrs. Clause is coming. She likes the big guy to dress a little more conservatively. Maybe khakis and a polo...but if Santa is going stag to the island...then it's a tank top and red shorts with white fur lining...party on!

    Hope you enjoy the trip to Jamaica Rick...your son does seem quite intelligent.

    For everyone else I thought you might want a dog update...Wrigley is doing well. We are putting in some new grass in the front and backyard...so his world is a little upside down...for now it's a lot of playing in the mud until the new sod is down.

    Here's the latest picture of the puppy.





    Sunset Forecast (link)
    Dec 3, 2004 2:41 pm

    I always think this is the best time of year to evaluate where you are in life. It's time to stop the frenzied pace of your year...and think about who you are and where you are going.

    This letter from John...is exactly what I'm talking about:

    "Sent by John Ebbighaus at Dec 3, 2004 5.11 pm

    My wife and I go to Laguna Beach or other nearby beach to watch the sunset every Friday night. Some time the sunsets are beautiful othe not so.

    Is it possible to predict the quality or beauty of an upcoming sunset?? If possible why not give that prediction at the noon report?

    Really like your weather reporting.

    Sincerely,

    John (78) & Marilyn (74)"

    We should all take after John's lead. Take some time out of your work week to watch the sun set. It happens every evening...and I think it's safe to say most of Southern California neglects mother nature's very own light show.

    As far as forecasting for the event...well...it's very similar to a regular forecast...
    An overcast sky...well of course no sunset.

    But you may be surprised...clear skies are not always the best sunsets....they are pretty as the sun falls below the horizon, but on the way down...it isn't all that impressive.

    Actually the best sunset forecast is partly cloudy skies at dusk...in fact our most dramatic sunsets occur during fire season...the smoke and particulate matter in the atmosphere make from some truly amazing colors as the sun sets.

    So my suggestion for 2005...take more time to think about the things and people you take for granted. You never know when you when they'll be gone forever.


    Springtime at Disneyland (link)
    Nov 30, 2004 8:37 am

    I'd like to start out this entry by thanking my number one fan...Timmy for his constant devotion to the weblog.

    "Sent by timmy (n/a) at Nov 26, 2004 10.44 pm

    Josh,
    Thank you for answering my question about why the sky is blue.
    You are my hero!!"

    He is a visionary...and is truly a weather fan.

    On to the business at hand...I received this email from Tishla:

    "Sent by Tishla Bune at Nov 27, 2004 8.08 pm

    I am going to Disneyland the first week in April and wanted to know what
    the weather is usually like then. Can you tell me ? Oh and say Hi to
    Henry....I used to watch him on Fox 13 here in Utah."

    Tishla-

    April is generally a pleasant month here in Los Angeles. It is at the very tail end of the rainy season...although rain isn't entirely out of the question, the chances of a storm are very low.

    Avg. daytime highs are in the low 70's overnight lows are in the mid-50's.

    Say hi ti Mickey for me...and I'll say hi to Henry for you.

    I also got this email from DANYALYNN RICKMAN:

    "Sent by DANYALYNN RICKMAN at Nov 29, 2004 8.11 pm

    Josh,Bryon. I live up here in Big Bear Lake & the temps up here could be a Tenn winter. My husband is from Tn & I have lived back there 4 18 years so this Ca Mt weather is very cold but nice & sometime I go out in shorts, even is the temp is 40 or below. Just thought you mite like to let others know about the weather up here in Big Bear Lake."

    Thanks for the update from the mountains...but why on earth go out in shorts when it is 40 degrees??? I'm thinking....keep your pants on.

    Thanks for the emails....keep them coming!




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